Genie Energy Stock: Possible Value Play But Not A Compelling One (NYSE:GNE)

Funding Thesis

Genie Vitality Ltd. (NYSE:GNE) has a cyclical enterprise mannequin that’s producing income with a fluctuating development during the last decade. In the long term, traders aren’t anticipated to learn considerably when it comes to inventory appreciation.

In keeping with Finviz, GNE is beneath the utility sector, which is perceived to be defensive. Defensive shares are anticipated to supply extra rewarding dividends to their shareholders. Sadly, when in comparison with friends, GNE is lagging behind its friends when it comes to dividend yields.

Whereas GNE neither fares properly as a development nor a defensive inventory, the silver lining is that GNE is considerably undervalued in comparison with its friends. This makes it a potential worth play for worth traders.

Enterprise Overview

In keeping with the corporate’s annual report:

Genie purchases electrical energy and pure gasoline on the wholesale markets and resells these commodities to GRE’s REPs’ clients. The optimistic distinction between the web gross sales worth of electrical energy and pure gasoline bought to its clients and the price of their electrical energy and pure gasoline provides and associated prices are the REP companies’ gross earnings.

GNE is a reseller (versus a producer) of vitality from the wholesale market to retailer customers. Therefore, it’s comparatively asset-light in comparison with vitality producers that must personal and preserve vegetation and tools for vitality manufacturing.

The corporate contains 2 fundamental companies: Genie Retail Vitality (“GRE”) and Genie Renewables.

GRE is accountable for offering ‘conventional, fossil-fueled electrical energy and/or pure gasoline to residential and small enterprise clients. Its clients embrace the US states of Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C. From the income breakdown, we are able to observe the lion’s share of income comes from the supply of electrical energy. Income from Pure Gasoline is comparatively insignificant.

Genie Renewables, because the title suggests, is accountable for offering ‘renewable’ sources of vitality, that are primarily photo voltaic vitality options. Such options additionally embrace vitality brokerage and advisory companies. From the income reported within the newest annual report, it’s nonetheless a really small share (About 4.7%) in comparison with its GRE section.

Earnings Assertion:

From the revenue assertion compiled by Searching for Alpha, we are able to observe that GNE’s top-line long-term income development during the last decade is basically stagnant. In comparison with 2013’s income of $279.9M, the present income of $304 is simply an increment of about $25. This interprets to a couple of 9% enhance during the last 9 years or simply 1% per yr.

Regardless of its stagnant income development, its bottom-line working revenue seems to be growing persistently, particularly during the last 3 years.

This means GNE’s earnings are principally derived from cost-cutting measures relatively than natural development. The current enhance in bottom-line working revenue is basically as a result of decrease working prices, primarily “buyer acquisition bills”. We will perceive this from the annual report:

like different retail suppliers, we suspended our face-to-face buyer acquisition applications in March 2020 as public well being measures have been applied to fight COVID-19, leading to a lower in gross meter acquisitions and a slight discount within the U.S. home meters served. The discount in gross meter acquisitions decreased our buyer acquisition bills in 2021.

The corporate’s promoting expense consists primarily of gross sales commissions paid to impartial brokers and advertising and marketing prices, that are the first prices related to the acquisition of shoppers. With fewer gross sales actions because of the pandemic, income development during the last 3 years stagnated, however the discount in promoting bills is even bigger, resulting in an general greater working revenue.

Quantitatively, whole income decreased by solely a marginal 1-digit share worth, however the discount in general working expense is within the double digits from 2021 to 2022.

General, the current good backside line outcomes have been as a result of value chopping, not development of the enterprise. Therefore, in my view, this development just isn’t anticipated to be long-lasting.

Stability Sheet:

Trying on the steadiness sheet, the corporate has an uncommon enhance within the money steadiness, which we perceive was because of the sale of two of its companies, ‘Lumo Sweden’ and ‘Orbit Vitality’:

This sale in property is predicted to be non-recurring and subsequently, we count on this enchancment in money steadiness to be additionally short-lived.

We have a look at the steadiness sheet compiled by Searching for Alpha during the last decade to get extra insights:

General:

The corporate’s most liquid property of ‘Whole Money & ST Investments’ has been lowering since 2013 and solely go bumped up within the final 2 years because of the sale of some enterprise operations as talked about earlier. Whereas it’s good for the corporate to build up additional cash on its steadiness sheet, this additional money was not as a result of elevated gross sales or enchancment in its enterprise mannequin. Therefore, the current enhance in money steadiness is more likely to be short-lived. Regardless of this lowering money steadiness, if we have a look at the development of its present ratio, the corporate nonetheless has a wholesome quantity of cash-generating property that persistently outstripped its present liabilities, giving it a optimistic working capital since 2013. Within the final 2 years, the corporate has had comparatively low debt. From the desk, I contemplate a Debt/EBITDA ratio decrease than 30% to be ‘low’ (highlighted in inexperienced). If we observe this ratio, it’s decrease than 30% in most years. At present, this ratio sits at 2.37%. This implies the corporate can simply repay its debt throughout the similar monetary yr utilizing the ‘money revenue’ generated by the corporate’s operations, with out having to dip into its money steadiness.

General, the corporate’s steadiness sheet is taken into account wholesome.

Money Stream

We infer from the money move figures compiled by Searching for Alpha:

The working money move was irregular from 2013 to 2017, toggling between optimistic and unfavourable territories. Since, 2018, it has turned optimistic and persistently stays so till now. This optimistic money move from 2018 is basically aligned with its internet revenue since 2018, which additionally turned optimistic in the identical yr 2018.

GNE has spent little or no on capital expenditure (“CAPEX”). In keeping with the annual report, that is an inherent attribute of all “retail vitality suppliers” (or REPs) usually:

REPs typically haven’t any vital fastened property and low ranges of capital expenditure

Because of the extraordinarily low CAPEX, the money generated by operations is ready to largely trickle all the way down to its free money move (“FCF”). On common, the GNE’s FCF has elevated by 58% since 2018, which is a really stellar fee.

Nonetheless, as mentioned earlier, the revenue from GNE is basically as a result of cost-cutting measures and never natural development because of a superior enterprise mannequin. Therefore, I’ve reservations about whether or not the present fee of enhance in FCF is sustainable.

Cyclical Enterprise Mannequin

GNE has a cyclical enterprise mannequin. The cyclical nature of the enterprise was explicitly described by the administration in the course of the newest earnings name:

Apparently, during the last decade, this cyclical development has led to a fluctuating top-line income.

Because of its cyclical enterprise mannequin, GNE just isn’t appropriate for traders in search of development shares for long-term funding.

Dividends

If GNE just isn’t a superb development inventory, is it a superb dividend inventory? Let’s evaluate the dividends with its friends to seek out out. In keeping with Morningstar, GNE competes with the next 2 corporations:

Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) Duke Vitality Corp (DUK)

We evaluate the dividend compiled by Searching for Alpha:

From all timeframes, GNE is clearly lagging behind its opponents when it comes to rewarding shareholders with dividends.

Valuation

If GNE is neither a superb development nor dividend inventory to put money into, can it’s a superb worth play for traders? We evaluate the valuation ratios compiled by Searching for Alpha:

At one look, we are able to observe that except P/B, all different valuation ratios of GNE carried out higher than its opponents.

This makes GNE a potential worth play for traders seeking to make a short-term revenue by shopping for low and promoting when the corporate turns into honest or overvalued once more (in distinction to a buy-and-hold technique).

Conclusion

By way of development, the current stellar features made in bottom-line earnings are the outcomes of cost-cutting measures and non-recurring gross sales of a number of the firm’s property. These current features aren’t anticipated to be sustainable in the long term.

As a defensive firm within the utility sector, GNE doesn’t supply a dividend yield that’s superior to its friends.

Nonetheless, as a reseller (not producer) of vitality from wholesalers, GNE does have the benefit of incurring low CAPEX because it doesn’t must personal vitality vegetation and tools used for the manufacturing of vitality. The corporate can be considerably undervalued in comparison with its friends.

General, GNE inventory is just appropriate for worth traders hoping to make a brief to medium-term revenue when the corporate turns into overvalued once more.