After 4 days of vote tallying, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) of Nigeria formally declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the nation’s extremely contested presidential election. The declaration is just not with out controversy, nonetheless, as a number of opposition events have disputed the legitimacy of the election and promised to problem the ends in courtroom. For his half, president-elect Tinubu has appealed for reconciliation along with his rivals and urged all Nigerians to unite behind his administration when he takes workplace in Might.
GeoPoll performed a survey previous to the election to gauge public sentiment concerning the state of the nation, individuals’s belief within the electoral course of, and their intention to vote. Now that the presidential election is over, GeoPoll applied a follow-up examine to study individuals’s voting experiences on election day, in addition to their confidence within the election course of and outcomes.
Findings from the post-election survey are detailed on this put up. To view the complete outcomes, filterable by query, state, gender, and age group, scroll all the way down to the Interactive Knowledge Dashboard.
Voter turnout in Nigeria has been on a gentle decline since peaking at 69% in 2003. Though 74% of respondents in our examine declare to have voted within the 2023 election, solely 29% of registered voters in Nigeria truly voted on election day – the bottom participation fee since Nigeria’s independence.
Of the 26% that didn’t vote, 41% say it was attributable to “registration/PVC issues.” One other 18% say that they had issues on the polling station.
For people who did vote, most had a “good” or “superb” voting expertise (61%). Solely 19% had a “poor” or “very poor” expertise.
61% of voters report a “good” or “superb” voting expertise.
Each the expectation and preliminary reviews of late begins at polling stations could have dissuaded some voters. Delays have been blamed on quite a lot of points, together with technical difficulties, late-arriving officers, money shortages that affected transport, and assaults on polling stations. Many of the voters in our examine report experiencing no less than minor delays (61%), with 21% saying their polling station opened greater than 2 hours not on time.
Whether or not their polling station opened on time or not, most respondents waited in line for no less than 1 hour to vote (60%). Nearly 1 in 3 (32%) waited for 3 hours or extra.
60% waited in line for no less than 1 hour to vote.
Regardless of fears of violence main as much as the elections, voting was largely peaceable exterior of some remoted incidents. These incidents probably contribute to the 4% of respondents that say they felt “very unsafe” at their polling station. Most, nonetheless, report feeling “considerably secure” or “very secure” (81%). Girls report feeling barely much less secure than males.
In our examine performed every week earlier than the election, most respondents felt “pissed off” with the present scenario in Nigeria. Frustration continues to be the most typical sentiment now that the election is over, however the share dropped from 58% to 45%. The share feeling “scared” additionally decreased, whereas these experiencing optimistic emotions (hopeful, blessed and completely happy) elevated.
Belief within the Electoral Course of Pre- and Publish-Elections
The electoral course of for the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election has been suffering from controversy since earlier than the primary votes have been solid. Whereas acknowledging technical glitches with its vote tallying platform, the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) stands by its declaration of Bola Tinubu because the president-elect, and has requested opposition events to take their grievances to courtroom.
Because the events put together their authorized challenges and the president-elect prepares his administration, we introduced voters a sequence of statements associated to their religion within the electoral course of, and requested whether or not they agree or disagree with every assertion.
Election Outcomes Acceptance, Fraud, and Violence
Respondents’ expectations for a fraud- and violence-free election that might be accepted by all Nigerians far exceeded their precise expertise. The chart beneath reveals the chances of respondents that “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed” with every of the three statements, each earlier than and after the election.
Opposition party-led protests have dampened respondents’ hope that the outcomes of the 2023 basic elections will likely be accepted by all Nigerians. The share that “disagree” or “strongly disagree” with that assertion climbed from 24% within the pre-election survey to 64% within the post-election survey.
Disputes over the electoral fee’s dealing with of the vote additionally elevated perceptions of fraud. People who disagree or strongly disagree that the elections will likely be/have been freed from fraud greater than doubled pre-/post-election, rising from 29% to 67%.
Though election day has been deemed largely peaceable, voters anticipated higher. Whereas solely 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the elections can be freed from violence and intimidation earlier than the election, 63% disagree or strongly disagree with that assertion now that the election is over.
Perceptions of INEC’s Efficiency
On election day, delays at polling stations, technical difficulties, and allegations of irregularities raised considerations about INEC’s planning and efficiency. After the election, glitches in INEC’s outcomes viewing platform and delays in asserting the outcomes seem to have amplified these considerations.
In our examine, voters’ specific vital dissatisfaction with INEC’s efficiency.
Solely 31% of respondents agree or strongly agree that each one events and candidates have been handled equally and pretty in the course of the election course of. Most seem to help opposition occasion claims of an total lack of equity.
Solely 31% agree that each one events and candidates have been handled equally and pretty.
Within the pre-election survey, virtually 2 in 3 respondents (65%) agreed or strongly agreed that INEC is clear and informs the general public and media about its actions. That share dropped to 34% after the election. A number of unbiased observers, together with the European Union, have criticized the election for missing transparency.
The most important section of respondents (39%) strongly disagree that INEC carried out its duties with honesty and integrity in the course of the 2023 elections. Solely 9% strongly agree.
The delay in asserting a winner seems to have sapped public confidence in a free and truthful election. Most agree or strongly agree (70%) that the delay in asserting a winner negatively impacts my perceptions of election integrity.
Most additionally say they’ve little or no to no confidence (63%) in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.
63% have little or no or no confidence in INEC’s vote tally and declaration of a winner.
Witnessing Election Day Interference
Earlier than INEC previously declared Bola Tinubu the winner of the 2023 presidential election, opposition events referred to as for a rerun, alleging widespread vote rigging and violence. In our examine, we requested voters about any private expertise with these claims.
General, greater than 1 in 3 respondents declare they or a buddy personally witnessed incidences of vote-buying (37%), voter suppression (40%), poll tampering (36%), and violence close to polling stations (39%). Related percentages say they have been solely advised about these incidences taking place by the media. Smaller percentages say they didn’t see or hear about these incidences taking place in any respect.
Perceptions of Democracy
With disruption, delays, and irregularities weakening public notion of transparency and integrity within the electoral course of, it follows that the majority respondents say they’re “very dissatisfied” with the way in which democracy works in Nigeria (52%).
52% are very dissatisfied with the way in which democracy works in Nigeria.
Growing transparency all through the electoral course of will likely be crucial for reinforcing public belief within the integrity of Nigeria’s democracy transferring ahead.
Interactive Knowledge Dashboard
Dive deeper into GeoPoll’s information on the Nigeria elections utilizing the interactive dashboard beneath. The dashboard supplies responses to every query within the survey, filterable by state, age group, and gender.
Conduct Democracy and Governance Analysis with GeoPoll
GeoPoll’s cellular analysis and engagement platform enable governments and democracy teams to succeed in residents in distant areas or battle zones shortly and safely, with out the necessity for on-the-ground enumerators. Utilizing GeoPoll, organizations can administer surveys and academic messages to extraordinarily particular goal populations, giving them the flexibility to shortly assess conditions and act upon essentially the most up-to-date data.
GeoPoll performed this survey utilizing our proprietary SMS and cellular net analysis platforms. Knowledge assortment occurred from March 11-13, 2023. The multi-modal examine used a easy random sampling method from GeoPoll’s and third-party databases to attain a various mixture of 542 voting-age adults from throughout Nigeria.
For extra data on the pattern and methodology for this examine or to conduct a analysis examine of your individual, contact us at present.
Prime picture by Samuel Alabi on Unsplash