At present is quarter finish. The USD is ending the quarter blended with declines vs the EUR , GBP , CHF and CAD and positive aspects vs the JPY, AUD and NZD. Under is a technical abstract of the most important pairs in what was an up and down quarter for all the pairs. I additionally define the technical ranges in play to start out the brand new month/quarter. The degrees would be the roadmap for the journey forward.
EURUSD: Up 152 pips or 1.426%
The EURUSD moved up 152 pips at 1.0851 from the top of 12 months stage. That’s up 1.426% for the 12 months. The low for the quarter was at 1.0481 on January 6.. The excessive reached 1.10317 on February 2. The low to excessive vary for the month was 547 pips.
The overall value motion noticed the pair transfer increased in January, decrease in February, and again increased in March. The value dipped beneath the rising 100 day MA on 1 day within the quarter (on March 16) however had no closes beneath that MA stage throughout your entire 1Q (see blue line on the chart above). The 100 day MA is at 1.06479 heading into the brand new quarter. It could take a transfer beneath the extent MA to tilt the bias extra to the draw back.
ON the topside getting above 1.0940 after which the excessive for the quarter at 1.10317 would improve the bullish bias.
USDJPY: Up 162 pips or 1.25%
The USDJPY is up 162 pips from the top of 2022 stage at 131.10 or 1.25%. On the quarter excessive reached on March eighth, the pair was up 681 pips. On the January 16 low, the pair was down -388 pips. The low to excessive buying and selling vary was 1070 pips which is probably the most slender since 3Q of 2021.
Technically, the run increased was in a position to prolong above the 100 day MA (blue line) and shut above that MA line for two buying and selling days. The 200 day MA was breached intraday on in the future, however didn’t shut above the 200 day MA throughout your entire quarter. The excessive value right this moment bought inside 25 pips of the falling 100 day MA at 132.936. The excessive right this moment was the closest the value has been to the 100 day MA since March ninth. It would take a transfer above the 100 day MA within the new buying and selling month, to extend the bullish bias for the pair. Till then, the sellers stay in management.
GBPUSD: Up 247 pips or 2.04%
The GBPUSD reached a low on January sixth at 1.18408 and didn’t return to that stage till March 7 to March 9 when a brand new first-quarter low was reached at 1.1802 on March 8. The value has since moved as much as close to the excessive with a peak right this moment at 1.2422. That bought with 23 pips of the excessive from January twenty third at 1.2445.
The excessive in January bought inside 2 pips of the December excessive at 1.2447 making a double prime at that stage. Heading into the brand new buying and selling month, that ceiling would be the key upside goal to get to and thru.
On the draw back, the GBPUSD has the rising 100 day MA at 1.21266. The value moved beneath the 100 and 200 day MAs in March on the way in which to the March 7 low, however there have been solely 4 closes beneath the 100 day MA within the quarter, and solely 2 closes beneath the 200 day MA which is close to the lows at 1.1853.
For the quarter the pair is buying and selling up 247 pips or 2.04%. The low to excessive buying and selling vary was solely 645 pips. That was the bottom vary for the reason that 2Q of 2021.
USDCHF: Down -92 pips or -1.00%
The USDCHF traded down, up and down within the 1Q of 2023. From the closing stage at 0.92244, the value moved to a low in early February at 0.90586. On March 2, the excessive reached 0.94404 which was retested on March eighth when the value reached 0.94387 earlier than tumbling to a low of 0.90706, with 12 pips of the early February low. One other snap again rally and fall into month/quarter finish reached 0.91152 right this moment earlier than bouncing to 0.9146 close to the shut.
The overall low to excessive buying and selling vary for the quarter is simply 381 pips which was the bottom buying and selling vary since Q1 2022. The pair is buying and selling down -92 pips from the top of 2022 stage or – 1.00%.
Technically, the highs skimmed the falling 100 day MA (blue line). There was just one day (March eighth) when the value moved above the 100 day MA, however there have been NO closes above the 100 day MA. The 100 day MA is up at 0.92965. The value must transfer above that falling MA, and keep above, to extend the bullish bias for the pair. On the draw back, the 0.90586 to 0.9101 are dwelling to a quantity
USDCAD: -26 pips or -0.19%.
The USDCAD is ending the quarter down simply 26 pips from the top of 12 months stage of 1.35415 or -0.19%. The preliminary transfer this quarter was right down to the low for the quarter reached in early February at 1.3261. The snap again rally took the value to the excessive which was reached on March 10 at 1.38614. The low to excessive buying and selling vary was a fair 600 pips in whole. That was the bottom low to excessive buying and selling vary for the reason that 1Q of 2022 when the vary was 471 pips.
Technically, the value spent close to equal time above and beneath the 100 day MA. It’s subsequently apropos that the pair examined the 100 day MA each yesterday and right this moment at 1.35159. The value is closing right this moment proper on the MA stage. The brand new month and quarter will use that MA because the bullish/bearish barometer. Transfer beneath and merchants will look towards the rising 200 day MA which is at 1.33691. The value has not traded beneath the 200 day MA since August 11, 2022, and never had a closing every day bar beneath the MA since June 8, 2022.
If the value does transfer increased, merchants might want to get above the 50% midpoint of the 1Q at 1.35614 after which the swing excessive from January at 1.36849. There’s a swing space between 1.3807 as much as 1.38614 which has a lot of swing highs going again to September 2022 (see purple numbered circles).
AUDUSD: -131 pips or -1.99%
The AUDUSD closed 2022 at 0.68146 and is closing the quarter at 0.6683. That’s down -131 pips on the quarter or -1.99%. The low to excessive buying and selling vary took the value to a excessive on February 2nd at 0.7157. The low was reached at 0.6564 on March 10. The overall excessive to low buying and selling vary was 593 pips.
Technically, the excessive value for the quarter stalled after taking out the excessive from August 2022 at 0.71357 to a excessive of 0.7157 on February 2nd. That break couldn’t be sustained on the day of the break, and the transfer to the lows for the quarter was began.
That transfer too 26 days to fall 593 pips earlier than rebounding again towards the falling 200 day MA (inexperienced line) presently at 0.67517. Sellers leaned forward of the 200 day MA on each March 22 and March 23. The excessive on the final day of the quarter reached 0.67373, simply 14 pips from the 200 day MA, earlier than rotating again decrease and shutting close to 0.6683. The lows during the last 3 buying and selling days of the quarter stalled close to the 50% midpoint of the rand for the reason that October 2022 low at 0.6663.
The 200 day MA would be the shut barometer on the topside. Transfer above and a number of the bearish bias is changed with a extra bullish bias. Above the 200 day MA could have merchants concentrating on the upper 100 day MA at 0.67984. A transfer above that might open the bullish door extra.
On the draw back, a transfer beneath the 50% midpoint, would improve the bearish bias and have merchants trying towards the lows and decrease swing space between 0.65468 and 0. 65847 (see inexperienced numbered circles).
———————————————————————————————————————————————————-NZDUSD: -96 pips or -1.50%
The NZDUSD closed the 12 months at 0.6348. The value is selecting the final day of the quarter at 0.6252. The value moved down 96 pips or -1.50%. The excessive for the quarter was reached on February 2 at 0.65375. The low was reached on March 8 at 0.6084. The excessive to low buying and selling vary was 451 pips, which was the bottom vary for 1 / 4 since Q3 2021.
Technically, each the excessive excessive for the quarter and the low excessive stalled close to swing areas. On the topside the world between 0.6529 and 0.6578 stalled the rally (see purple numbered circles). On the draw back, the swing space between 0.60559 and 0.60844 stalled the autumn (see inexperienced numbered circles).
The up and down value motion for the quarter began to flatten each the 100 and 200 day MAs (blue and inexperienced traces on the chart above). The 100 day MA additionally moved above the 200 day MA. The 100 day MA is ending the quarter at 0.62925. The 200 day MA is at 0.61453. The closing value is nearer to the upper 100 day MA at 0.62527 after the excessive value for the day examined the higher MA stage on Friday.
During the last 15 buying and selling days, the value closed between the 2 every day MAs on 14 of the times (there was an in depth above the 100 day MA on March 17, however that break failed the following day).
Going into the brand new buying and selling month/quarter, the 2 MAs would be the bullish above, and bearish beneath barometers. Get above the 100 day MA at 0.6292 and keep above is extra bullish. Transfer beneath the 200 day MA at 0.6151 is extra bearish.
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